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Volatility refers to the daily ups and
downs of investment values. Much maligned by
investors and the media when prices plummet,
volatility is welcomed when investment values
head upward. Yet, when was the last time you
heard anyone use the word “volatile” to
describe prices going up?
How
volatility differs from a roller coaster
Volatility is often equated with riding a
roller coaster, but there's one key
difference: When a roller coaster ride ends,
you're exactly where you started.
That's not necessarily the case with
volatility. Thanks to its upside, U.S. stock
values have trended upward over the long term
despite steep periodic declines, such as the
one that occurred in late February and early
March of 2007. From a long-term perspective,
the declines don't look nearly as steep as
they probably felt at the time.
Two
perspectives on volatility
The first chart below illustrates that
roller coaster feeling. It shows returns over
25 years, but from the perspective of
year-to-year volatility.
Year-Over-Year Returns
Can Swing Dramatically
Annual Returns of S&P
500 Index 1982 – 2006
| Source:
S&P's Micropal. 12-31-06.
Represents Standard & Poor's
500 Index total yearly percentage
returns, assuming reinvestment of
dividends. This index is unmanaged
and unavailable for direct
investment. Chart reflects past
results and does not predict
future results, nor does it
represent the performance of any
Franklin Templeton fund. |
The second chart uses the same
data—returns of the S&P 500 Index over
25 years—but instead of displaying
individual years, it shows the cumulative
return over the long term.
| Source:
S&P's Micropal, 12-31-06.
Shows performance of S&P 500
Index, with a hypothetical
starting value of $10,000,
assuming reinvested dividends,
starting on 1-1-82. This index is
unmanaged and unavailable for
direct investment. Chart reflects
past results and does not predict
future results, nor does it
represent the performance of any
Franklin Templeton fund. |
If you develop the ability to keep your
focus on the long term, you'll have mastered
the primary approach to living with
volatility's downside.
Living
with volatility's downside
Most folks can get reasonably comfortable
with volatility by using 4 basic investment
strategies:
- Focus on the long term
- Invest regularly
- Diversify your investments
- Keep in touch with your financial
advisor
Focus on the long term. One key
to living with volatility is focusing on
long-term results rather than the daily bumps
along the way.
That can be especially difficult during
prolonged market declines fed by daily
injections of bad news. Investors living
through the aftermath of the stock bubble that
burst in March 2000 were acutely aware of how
challenging it can be to stay focused on the
long term.
Invest regularly. Also called
dollar-cost averaging, an automatic investment
program is another strategy for living with
volatility's downside and taking advantage of
its upside.
You don't need to worry about the best time
to invest when you put away the same amount
every month, but like most investing
strategies, it doesn't guarantee a profit or
prevent losses.
This strategy can help reduce anxiety about
portfolio declines. However, by focusing
attention on the bright side—when the market
is down, you're buying shares at bargain
prices—but it also requires you to continue
investing despite fluctuating prices. Before
starting a dollar-cost averaging plan,
consider your ability to continuing buying
shares through prolonged market and economic
slumps.
Diversify your investments. No
one asset category does well all the time, so
it can be a good idea to put your eggs in a
variety of baskets. If some of your
investments are down, others may be up.
One area of the market can be hot for
several years, like large U.S. growth stocks
in the second half of the 1990s. During those
years, owners of diversified portfolios may
not have had much to say when friends bragged
about outsized returns in their 100% growth
stock portfolios. But the growth stock free
fall that started in March 2000 underscored
the value of diversification as a strategy for
living with volatility's downs.
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