What is your take on the
recent European sovereign debt crisis?
It's been worrisome on a lot of levels.
There are very real concerns about the
viability of the European Union, and these
concerns have created a wave of anxiety
that's hit the global markets hard. And the
situation hasn't been helped by the fact
that so many European nations are now angry
with each other. So the crisis offers a
genuine test for this loose confederation of
countries: The EU is united only by a common
currency and some common economic interests,
and it can't establish tax policy or other
fiscal measures for individual nations or
the EU as a whole. Having said all that, I
think it will survive, though probably with
some important modifications to its current
form. It seems to me that each country has
more to lose by breaking it up than it does
by enduring the current pains of hanging
together. It's certainly in the best
interests of the global economy that it stay
together. Over the last several years,
global investors have made it clear, for
example, that they want a solid currency
alternative to the U.S. dollar.
Have these events
affected the way that Royce invests in non-U.S.
securities?
I think the economy is on the right
track. I'm not wildly enthusiastic, but I
am optimistic.
Not really. The troubled fiscal state of
countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal
is not a new development—we have no
investments in Portugal, and less than 0.03%
of the firm's assets were invested in
companies domiciled in Greece and Spain as
of the end of June. Our disciplined value
approach also leads us to small-cap
companies that we think are capable of
withstanding economic difficulties, so we
think that the bulk of our European
investments should ultimately emerge in
solid condition. The debt crisis has created
ample buying opportunities that we think are
very attractive on a long-term basis. As the
European markets have stumbled, we've been
acting opportunistically to build existing
positions and to buy companies whose stock
prices have come down to levels that we find
enticing. Currency plays are obviously not
our stock in trade, but we've also seen
opportunity in European stocks in light of
the euro's substantial decline over the last
several months. So really what the crisis
has done for us is to expand the number of
prospects in the European small-cap markets.
Should investors be
encouraged about the spate of positive and
better-than-expected earnings news here in
the U.S.?
I'm a bit split on this question.
Although I lean more toward the notion that
investors should be encouraged by the
current earnings picture, I also think that
any excitement needs to be tempered by the
fact that recent earnings look strong in
relation to where companies were in 2008 and
early 2009, when most were bouncing off an
historically terrible period. In other
words, the bar for earnings improvement was
set awfully low. However, I think that this
is still good news because it shows that
many U.S. corporations did what needed to be
done—they grew leaner and meaner and
effectively dealt with a financial crisis,
which is being reflected in stronger
earnings. It's also important to remember
that long-term growth is not a straight-line
phenomenon. Short-term setbacks are a common
occurrence in the journey to more lasting
success. While the perception seems to be
that we are once again struggling, I think
the economy is on the right track. I'm not
wildly enthusiastic, but I am optimistic.
What do you see as the
potential consequences for the stock market
in a slow-growth economy?
I see a slow-growth economy as a
favorable backdrop for our disciplined style
because of its emphasis on company quality.
My expectation is that a slow-growth economy
is likely to lead investors to focus on two
areas—fast-growing companies and
high-quality companies. Any business that
looks capable of outstripping the pace of
the economy as a whole is going to be in
high demand, and I can see that benefiting
the kind of small-caps that fit our
selection criteria—those that boast strong
balance sheets, high returns on invested
capital and the ability to generate free
cash flow.
With investors clearly
still apprehensive, what is the case for
investing in equities today?
We've been witnessing a stampede out of
equities and into fixed income to such a
degree that I wouldn't be surprised to see a
bubble in fixed income investments in the
coming months. I remain convinced that
equities will provide stronger returns,
particularly inflation-adjusted returns,
over the next five- and 10-year periods. It
seems reasonable to me that the current
decade will end up with equity returns
somewhere in the high single digits. Taking
advantage of current volatility is, for us,
critical toward building strong results for
the decade, as well as other long-term
periods.
Important
Disclosure Information
Chuck
Royce is President, Co-Chief
Investment Officer and a Portfolio Manager
of Royce & Associates, LLC, investment
adviser for The Royce Funds. Mr. Royce's
thoughts in this interview concerning the
stock market are solely his own and, of
course, there can be no assurance with
regard to future market movements.