Do you think that the pace of the rally
will continue to slacken?
Yes, I believe it will. We've seen the
dramatic lift-off that created very robust
returns from last year's low on March 9, and
now there are more modest expectations about
the pace of the rally. We've also seen some
regular interruptions—that is, brief
downturns between 9% and 10% such as we had in
January. I expect that pattern to continue
because people are wary about the economy. The
experiences of the last two years are still
fresh in their minds.
On the other hand, I am optimistic because
investors still seem so cautious about making
commitments to equities. My contrarian streak
tells me that this caution is not entirely
well-placed—I don't think we're likely to
see a repeat of 2008, which is the worry that
seems to be driving this hesitance. My guess
is that, by historical standards, many
investors are woefully under-allocated in
equities.
What other market trends do you see taking
shape?
think we're in for a period of
substantially increased M&A (merger &
acquisition) activity. In spite of the
recovery, organic growth remains hard for
businesses to come by, so they'll be looking
for other ways to boost revenue such as buying
up smaller or financially weaker competitors.
Corporate balance sheets are generally in
excellent condition, which puts strong firms
in a position to buy and makes small,
well-managed companies look that much more
enticing as targets. With the economy slowly
recovering, the need for companies to hoard
cash has passed, and credit is more readily
available for healthy businesses. Finally,
corporate America in general did a great job
cutting costs in the worst days of the
recession; now I suspect that they are looking
for new ways to exercise that financial
discipline.
What are the challenges of managing
portfolios with a disciplined value approach
in today's relatively less volatile market?
There are always challenges, but I think
it's less challenging today than it was in the
more extreme moments of the bear market and in
the bull market that preceded the crash.
During the middle of the decade, there were
far fewer attractive purchase candidates,
which made things very challenging. The bear
market obviously created an enormous number of
opportunities, but we were also in the middle
of a global financial and economic crisis.
Today, we've had chances to sell stocks that
look fully priced to us. We're also seeing
plenty of companies that look mispriced to us
due to low expectations in the short run, but
that looks promising to us over the long run.
I think it's a very good time to be an equity
investor with a disciplined, long-term
approach.
Where have you been finding value lately?
It's really a stock-by-stock kind of
environment. We haven't really seen entire
industries that are completely out of favor as
a group. We have seen some interesting themes,
but they're just not at the level that we saw
in late 2008 and early 2009. We've seen
earnings disappointments where expectations
for a quick recovery were dashed. There have
also been some delayed recoveries. In
addition, we've seen some underlying currents
that look very encouraging to us, with some
businesses starting to consolidate. We're
finding that, as banks become healthier,
they're able to get tougher on their difficult
loans, so credit may actually become more
difficult to obtain for weaker companies. This
should lead to a sorting out process over the
next year or so, in which financially strong
companies can exploit their advantage.
In industries such as trucking and energy
services, we're finding companies where
management teams are suddenly, and pleasantly,
surprised with the turns in their business.
These present very interesting opportunities
for us because you can be sure if management
is surprised by how quickly their business is
turning around, the market is going to be
surprised as well.
What is your outlook for the Natural
Resources sector and industrial companies?
Both areas took a little breather in the
first quarter of 2010, mostly due to a
strengthening U.S. dollar. However, an ongoing
rally for the dollar is not a bet that I would
make for the long run. Our currency was once
again awarded safe haven status amid global
debt problems, but this could prove temporary
because for every financially troubled
eurozone country, there is a U.S. state in
almost comparably dismal financial condition.
With the dollar unlikely to keep rallying and
each of these area's sound fundamentals, we're
still pretty bullish on the long-term
prospects for our Natural Resources industries
and industrial companies.
Are you still seeing attractive
opportunities in foreign stocks?
Absolutely—we continue to
opportunistically increase our exposure to
foreign stocks, especially with the help of
some key
new additions to our investment staff—Portfolio
Manager and Managing Director, George Wyper,
and analysts Dilip Badlani and Meena
Mallipeddi. Each brings a wealth of expertise
and experience to our expanding global
efforts.
Important Disclosure Information
W.
Whitney George is a Co-Chief Investment
Officer, Portfolio Manager and a Managing
Director of Royce & Associates, LLC,
investment adviser to The Royce Funds. Mr.
George's thoughts in this piece are solely
his own and, of course, there can be no
assurance with regard to future market
movements. This material is not authorized
for distribution unless preceded or
accompanied by a current prospectus.
Please read the prospectus
carefully before investing or sending
money.