When volatility sends stock prices tumbling, as has
been the case in recent months, what can investors do
to maintain their long-term plans? First, take a deep
breath and don't make any sudden moves in your
portfolio. "There is no reason to scrap
everything we know about investing and just sell
assets," observes Russell Wild, a financial
planner in Allentown, Pa., and author of
Bond
Investing for Dummies and
Index Investing for
Dummies.
"When investors are confronted with a market
that's truly an anomaly, like the market we've been
facing since October 2007," Wild continues,
"there is a tendency to forget what decades of
experience have taught us: that over long periods of
time, investors may benefit from diversifying their
investments among different asset classes."
A Foundation for Investment Strategies
According to Wild, diversification—and its
partner, asset allocation—are the building blocks
for investors' long-term plans.
A diversified portfolio is designed to manage
short-term volatility. Different types of stocks and
bonds often don't move in the same direction or in the
same magnitude, which means that if one investment
doesn't perform well, another investment could pick up
the slack. To put it simply, diversification means not
steering all of your savings into the same type of
investment vehicle.
If diversification is an investor's goal, asset
allocation is the means to achieving that goal.
Investments are spread among stocks, bonds and cash
instruments, as well as among different asset types in
each class. Consequently, a truly diversified
portfolio will hold investments in large-, mid- and
small-capitalization stocks; international and
domestic equities; treasury, corporate and municipal
bonds; and money market funds and certificates of
deposit.
"In a bear market, diversification is not
always effective," Wild admits. "But longer
term, diversification has been successful at smoothing
out volatility. That's why I tell clients that
investing in stocks and corporate bonds still makes
sense. Putting all your money in cash and treasuries,
on the other hand, may not be a good long-term
strategy, depending on the stage of life you are in.
You may eliminate a lot of short-term risk, but you
may also sharply limit your portfolio's growth
potential."
In the face of market volatility, and the certainty
that price fluctuations will always be part of the
investment process, how can you use diversification
and asset allocation to your advantage? Consider the
following recommendations.
Craft a Personalized Strategy
Media pundits are full of investment advice, and
friends and relatives often share a tip or two. But
what might work for others isn't necessarily right for
you, which is why you need a plan that is driven by
asset allocation and addresses your individual needs,
says Wild.
"Everyone has a risk/return 'sweet
spot,'" Wild explains, "which is based on
such factors as a person's age, goals, health and
financial condition. That unique sweet spot determines
an investor's asset allocation formula—where he or
she invests and how much is invested in each area of
the market."
Todd Houge, Ph.D., CFA, an assistant professor of
finance at the University of Iowa-Tippie College of
Business, believes most investors actually need more
than one asset allocation plan.
"Take the time to understand the focus and
time horizon of each of your investment goals,"
Houge recommends. "For example, investing for
college is an intermediate-term goal for most people,
while investing for retirement is a long-term goal.
Meanwhile, if you're already retired, living off your
savings is a short-term goal.
"In other words," he continues, "how
you invest, and how you allocate assets, is a function
of your specific circumstances."
Don't Chase Performance
In any market environment, but especially a
volatile one, investors can be "guilty of recency,"
says Wild, "which is the belief that what has
happened in the recent past will continue into the
future."
Recency can lead to chasing performance—buying
the latest "hot" stock or fund and selling
everything else—a dangerous choice for investors.
"Chasing the herd can get you trampled,"
says Houge. "Individual investors can overreact
to what's happening in the market, which often results
in the investor making a wrong decision at the wrong
time.
He continues: "If you're tempted to make an
impulsive move, go back to your asset allocation plan
and ask yourself, 'Why am I making this trade?' If you
don't have a good answer—if nothing in your
financial or personal circumstances has changed
dramatically—then stick with your plan."
Periodically Rebalance Your Portfolio
Over time, market performance can cause your
holdings to drift away from your current
allocation—especially when volatility is high.
Instead of holding 70 percent stocks and 30 percent
bonds, for example, perhaps your portfolio has shifted
to a 55-45 ratio. By "rebalancing" your
portfolio periodically, you can keep your investments
aligned with your objectives and risk tolerance.
How often should you rebalance? Houge recommends
revisiting your asset allocation plan at least once a
year, or whenever there has been a substantial shift
in the market or a significant change in your personal
circumstances.
Practice True Diversification
For individual investors, diversification and asset
allocation can help manage volatility while generating
growth over long periods of time. But to make these
tools actually produce results, investors must do more
than simply invest in one or two funds, Wild stresses.
"The degree of diversification you can take
advantage of depends on the size of your
portfolio," says Wild. "As your assets
increase over time, so will the number of asset
classes you can handle."
Houge agrees. "Diversification and asset
allocation offer very positive benefits to individual
investors, but only if properly employed. At a
minimum, investors should spread their assets among
different types of stocks, bonds and cash instruments.
People often overlook cash, but it's an important
component of most asset allocation plans."
Looking ahead, Houge feels that investors should
continue to maintain broad diversification in their
portfolios. "There is no reason to panic during a
bear market and abandon your asset-allocation
plan," he says. "The stock market is a
forward-looking indicator and I believe it will move
up in advance of the eventual rebound in the
economy."