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What to do—and not to do—now

Fidelity Investments

By Karin Price Mueller, 

Fidelity Interactive Content Services

May 24, 2010

If the recent market turbulence has left you uneasy, you’re not alone. Here's a road map for what to do now.

The speed of the market’s recent decline has left investors staggering. It took less than a month for the market to tumble 10% from the highs hit last month — a decline that market pros call a “correction” — about half the average of 54 days for market corrections going back to 1928.

Though the declines thus far are much milder than during the turmoil of 2008, the latest downturn still may have dented your portfolio. It's already caused some investors to follow their gut and flee stocks.

Investors pulled $8.6 billion from domestic stock funds in the week after the May 6 "flash crash," when the Dow (.DJI) tumbled nearly 1,000 points in one afternoon before recovering to close down about 3%. The figures on fund flows are from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), a mutual fund trade group that tracks investing trends.
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But broad-based selling into market declines is not usually the best strategy for individual investors, financial planners and other experts say. Instead, despite the unsettling headlines, you should follow your plan, rather than following the crowd.

“As long as you have an investment plan in place and you've been thoughtful about how much risk you can take, you should have conviction and confidence that over the long term, that's the right asset allocation for you,” says Chris McDermott, senior vice president for investor education and retirement planning for Fidelity Investments.

McDermott said investors should take the long view for their investments and retirement planning — and then stick to their plan. Here are four things to watch now:

1. Learn from the past

The 2008 market decline offers lessons you can use to guide you through the current turbulence. If you were part of the selloff of 2008-2009 and didn't reinvest, you lost out on 14 months of spectacular gains in stocks. Don't let that happen this time.

Here’s a quick look back at 2008. From September of that year through March 2009, some $225 billion got pulled out of stock funds, with nearly $300 billion flowing into money market funds in the last quarter of 2008 alone, according to ICI. In other words, people were fleeing the volatile stock market for the perceived “safety” of cash.

When the market started to rebound, investors put some $60 billion into equity funds, ICI data showed — leaving a lot of cash still on the sidelines.

History shows that a decline like we’ve seen during the past month is often followed by a healthy rebound. Since 1950, the S&P 500 (.SPX) has fallen 13% or more in a three-month period 23 times, McDermott notes. On 15 of those occasions, there was a 20% rebound over the next year.  
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Dow Jones Industrial Average performance chart

2. Don't try to time the market

Trying to buy and sell ahead of the pros may not help the average investor, and in fact may hurt your bottom line, according Reed Fraasa, a certified financial planner with Highland Financial Advisors in Riverdale, N.J.

Fraasa recently did an informal study of how his clients reacted to the turmoil of 2008 compared to other clients with similar asset allocations. Of 115 clients, five sold everything and moved to cash during the 2008-2009 selloff, and re-entered the market at various times. Of the five, one investor's portfolio was 2% worse than the average, three were marginally worse and one was 2% better. 

"For all the trading costs, taxes, and emotional turmoil of getting out and going in, the five clients’ actions had little impact over the 18-month period,'' Fraasa says. “This correction will be no different.''

Staying put, then, might be the best strategy of all — as long as you were in the right place to start.

3. Find the right mix

If the models say that for your age and time horizon you should have a certain percentage of your money in stocks, make sure you do a gut check to see if that’s right for you.

“You've got to evaluate your allocation and be honest with yourself about how much risk and volatility you're comfortable with,'' McDermott says.

For example, let's say a 40-year-old investor is told he needs 70% of his portfolio in stocks. His portfolio starts out that way, but headlines about falling stock prices and economic instability give him worries. Big worries. That means the 70% allocation probably isn't right for him given his lower tolerance for risk.

”You should have an equity allocation you can sleep with,'' says Brian Kazanchy, a certified financial planner with RegentAtlantic Capital in Morristown, N.J. "If you’re too worried about the ups and downs of your allocation, you are much more likely to sell at the wrong time.''

To avoid that pitfall, build a mix you can live with and stick to it. Remember, though: Inflation, while quiet today, is still a serious long-term concern, so you need to ensure your portfolio will keep up with the cost of living over the long-term.

4. Fix your mix (aka rebalance)

If you have a target asset allocation based on your time horizon and your tolerance for risk, a big correction (or rebound) is always a good time to make sure you're still on track.

For example, if your target portfolio should have 60% stocks and that’s fallen to 50% with the recent correction, move some of your cash back into stock until you're back at your target allocation.

"This type of philosophy will help you buy low and sell high,'' Kazanchy said.


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