On
steps taken to shore up the system:
How are the steps
being taken benefitting me?
Given the magnitude of the problems and the complexity
of the global financial system, there is no silver
bullet, no one single takeover, no single regulation
that will immediately cure the system. Nevertheless, we
think many of the actions taken have been beneficial for
the average American investor.
- Takeover of Freddie and Fannie. This action
was intended to keep the mortgage market functioning
and bring down the cost of obtaining a mortgage due
to the removal of uncertainty over Freddie and
Fannie's ability to continue as going concerns.
Mortgage rates are down, making it more affordable
for people to obtain financing-potentially helping
to slow the decline in housing (the root of the
problem). The mortgage market continues to function
at least as well as it did before the takeover. To
further bolster the mortgage market, the Federal
Housing Finance Agency has freed the firms from
their normal capital requirements. This means the
firms can buy up more mortgages than they were able
to previously.
- Fed expanded lending facilities. This
refers to the Fed's willingness to accept a broader
set of securities than they've ever done in the past
in exchange for emergency loans to financial firms.
The Fed's action does not address solvency issues,
but it attempts to ease short-term liquidity issues
that would otherwise impact healthy financial
companies. Making sure that otherwise healthy firms
are not done in by a short-term cash crunch is
beneficial to the system as a whole and anyone who
operates within it.
- AIG loan. The Fed was willing to loan money
to AIG in order to prevent AIG's problems from
having a ripple effect on other financial firms. If
AIG was unable to make good on its obligations, then
many other insurers and banks who deal with AIG
would have been exposed to more losses. By the Fed
stepping in, the risk from this scenario is reduced.
This is not to say that there aren't other firms out
there that could find themselves in similar straits
as AIG, but AIG seems to have been the largest and
most vulnerable and, thus, the Fed took action to
remove that source of risk from the system.
- U.S. Treasury backing of money market funds.
The U.S. Treasury announced "the establishment
of a temporary guaranty program for the U.S. money
market mutual fund industry. For the next year, the
U.S. Treasury will insure the holdings of any
publicly offered eligible money market mutual
fund—both retail and institutional—that pays a
fee to participate in the program." This is a
terrific development for money market fund investors
whose firms choose to participate. Money market
funds are an important cash vehicle, have
historically been remarkably safe, secure, and
liquid, and this action provides even more
reinforcement for keeping them that way for
individual investors.
- FDIC management of failed banks. It is
never good to have a bank fail, and that has
happened 15 times this year. The good news is that
banking authorities have managed to, so far, handle
the failures with minimal disruption. Depositors
have been protected either through tapping the
insurance fund or by forcing a merger with a
healthier institution.
- Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. This
is the official name for the $700 billion plan
approved by Congress and signed by the president on
October 3. The heart of the plan is for the Treasury
to begin buying from banks various forms of
securities tied to mortgage payments and to take
direct ownership positions in banks. The thesis of
this plan is that by providing a market for these
securities, banks will have cleaner balance sheets
that will spur intra-bank lending. Once banks regain
trust in each other, they'll be more willing to
reinstitute lending to qualified borrowers. By
taking ownership stakes, the government can directly
replenish capital that has been depleted by loan
write-offs. With more capital the banks can lend
again.
- Coordinated actions by policymakers worldwide.
The financial system is global in nature. By
cooperating more closely on regulatory actions and
interest rate policies, it is hoped that the entire
global financial system can be stabilized and not
just one piece of it. Given the interconnectedness
of the system, a weak link places other components
of the system under stress and therefore all
components must be strengthened.
How much are these
various efforts to stabilize the system going to cost?
It depends on which effort we're talking about. We'll
discuss each one individually since the facts and
circumstances are different.
- Freddie and Fannie. The government
intervention with Fannie and Freddie is widely
referred to as a “bailout”, but we take issue
with that characterization. Both common and
preferred shareholders (i.e. the owners of the
companies), have been largely wiped out as a result
of government intervention. The institutions
themselves, their counterparties and their
bondholders may have been bailed out, but the
stockholders were not. As for the cost, we don't
know. Here's why. In exchange for capital infusions
of up to $200 billion, the government essentially
will own 80% of each company. Also, the government
received $1 billion of preferred stock with a 10%
coupon—senior to all other preferred issues. At
this point, we don't know how much capital the
government will need to put in and we don't know how
much the government will receive in the event it
ultimately unwinds its position. Should the housing
and mortgage markets stabilize, and value returns to
Freddie and Fannie, the government could end up
making a profit on the deal. If the companies and
the housing market remain crippled, the government
puts in the full $200 billion and is unable to
extricate itself, then it could wind up with a total
loss. We think this latter scenario is highly
unlikely.
- AIG. In this deal the government received
80% ownership in exchange for an interest-bearing
loan of $85 billion. The loan is to be paid back
through the sale of AIG assets and carries a
relatively high interest rate. Much like the Fannie
and Freddie situation described above, the total
cost of this action is not known. We do know that
existing shareholders have seen their holdings drop
to a few dollars per share and so, again, we're sure
they don't feel bailed out. On the other hand,
counterparties to AIG's derivatives transactions and
their bondholders are probably breathing a sigh of
relief. Taxpayers interested in their tally should
watch as AIG decides what assets to sell and what
price it obtains when it goes to sell to pay back
the loan.
- Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. By
this we mean the estimated $700 billion government
intervention into the financial markets. Once again,
it is difficult to estimate the final price tag for
many reasons. First, the details of the program are
still being worked out, but let's assume the
government is going to buy impaired mortgage assets
from financial institutions who need to get them off
their books. What price will be paid for these
mortgage assets? What additional provisions will be
included in the transactions? Will the government
take an ownership stake like it did with Freddie,
Fannie and AIG? The potential cost to the taxpayer
varies widely—from a possible loss of $700 billion
(or more if both the financial system and housing
market completely fall apart), to a potential gain
if they purchase assets at a severely discounted
price, hold them until maturity or stabilization
occurs, and then sell them back at a profit.
On
retirement investing:
I was about to retire,
but my portfolio keeps losing money. How do I determine
if I'm still on track?
A good place to start is by using our retirement
assessment tool. By entering an updated estimate of your
portfolio value, living expenses in retirement, other
sources of income, age, etc., you can get an estimate as
to the probability of being able to sustain that
spending throughout your retired years.
If you’re not quite there, then you have a number of
options to consider. For example, how accurate are your
expense numbers? Trimming expenses is highly effective for
making your retirement portfolio last longer. Break down
your expenses into two buckets: discretionary (nice to
have) and nondiscretionary (must have). Review the
discretionary items and ask yourself how important those
items are to your future happiness.
Another tack is to make sure your portfolio size is
correct. What we mean is that we're amazed at how many
accounts people accumulate over time and how many tend
to fall by the wayside and get forgotten. Did you
include all of your accounts in your analysis? Did you
deliberately exclude some because you were earmarking
that account for a different purpose (e.g., a gift to
someone down the road). That may still make sense, but
you should revisit that decision and still make sure it
works given your present circumstances.
Finally, there's the question of the retirement date
itself? Delaying retirement a year can have a powerful
impact on your odds of success. One more year of income
and one more year of savings can be a real boon to your
prospects. Are you in a dual-earner household where
both are planning to retire simultaneously? Perhaps one
can retire now and the other can stick with the status
quo for a longer period of time. Another approach is to
not stop working all at once, but cut back on your hours
gradually.
There's no one right answer for everyone because the
retirement decision is ultimately about what you want
and what your situation is able to accommodate. The best
approach is to reanalyze the situation and adjust as
needed. As a general rule, we think that small
adjustments now work out better than being forced to
make big adjustments later.
To get to the retirement assessment tool if you're not a
Schwab client, go to Schwab.com. Click on the Advice
& Retirement tab. Then click on the Retirement
Planning tab. You should see a link to the Retirement
Savings Calculator.
To get to the retirement assessment tool if you are a
Schwab client, go to Schwab.com and log in. Click on the
Planning & Advice tab. Then click on the Retirement
tab. You should see a link to the Retirement Assessment
Calculator.
I live off my portfolio
and am concerned that I'm spending too much from it
given the economic situation. How much can I withdraw?
A good starting point is to use the 4%
rule. The idea behind this rule is that you look at
the size of your portfolio and spend 4% this year and
then increase that dollar amount over time by the rate
of inflation. If you follow this approach we estimate
that your portfolio has a 90% chance of lasting for 30
years.
Let's assume your portfolio is $500,000 right now.
Multiply $500,000 x 0.04 and you get an amount that you
can withdraw in the first year. In this case, it’s
$20,000. That’s the amount you can take from your
portfolio this year. If your portfolio generates $10,000
in the form of dividends and interest, that amount comes
out of the $20,000. You can withdraw another $10,000 in
the form of selling off some of your securities. For
next year, you can withdraw $20,000 plus a bit more to
account for inflation.
There are a lot of assumptions behind this rule, so
please consider this as an estimate only.
Many people look at the 4% and think that it looks low.
It is low for a reason. The intent was to get a number
that can be reasonably sustained during long periods of
time and to take into account ongoing inflation—a huge
risk for any retiree. As we've seen during the past 15
months, the stock market can drop, and so we need a
withdrawal rate that isn't so high during poor periods
that it guts the portfolio and doesn’t allow for
growth over time.
The 4% is just a starting point. We encourage you to
take a look at our retirement assessment tool and enter
data that more reflects your current situation.
To get to the retirement assessment tool if you're not a
Schwab client, go to Schwab.com. Click on the Advice
& Retirement tab. Then click on the Retirement
Planning tab. You should see a link to the Retirement
Savings Calculator.
To get to the retirement assessment tool if you are a
Schwab client, go to Schwab.com and log in. Click on the
Planning & Advice tab. Then click on the Retirement
tab. You should see a link to the Retirement Assessment
Calculator.
On WaMu:
What implications does
the failure of Washington Mutual have for the FDIC
insurance fund?
None. While the Office of Thrift Supervision closed
Washington Mutual on the evening of September 25, the
FDIC facilitated the sale of the banking operation to
JPMorgan Chase. According to the FDIC in a statement,
this means, "All depositors are fully protected and
there will be no cost to the Deposit Insurance
Fund."
What if I own Washington
Mutual stock?
This is our current understanding of the chain events
that have been reported:
- The Office of Thrift Supervision closed Washington
Mutual and the FDIC was named receiver.
- The FDIC, in turn, sold the banking assets to
JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 billion and it agreed to
assume "qualified financial contracts."
Since nearly all the assets of the firm are gone, it is
not clear yet what value, if any, shares in Washington
Mutual will have.
How will Washington
Mutual bonds and preferred stock fare?
Bonds (senior unsecured and subordinated) and the
preferred stock of Washington Mutual (WaMu) were
excluded from the deal with JPMorgan Chase. On September
30, the company filed an 8-K report with the Securities
and Exchange Commission and estimated that the WaMu
holding company has about $5 billion. Regulators (e.g.,
FDIC or OTS) have the authority to send this cash
downstream to the bank subsidiary. Since there is no
longer a bank subsidiary (it was bought by JPMorgan
Chase), there is some level of uncertainty over what
will actually happen to bondholders of the bank.
The bank subsidiary would receive $1.9 billion from
JPMorgan Chase as payment for assumption of the
depositors and loans. If these turn out to be the sole
assets of the bank subsidiary, then senior, unsecured
bonds issued by the subsidiary might return 32
cents on the dollar, according to CreditSights.
If the $5 billion in holding company cash is sent to the
bank subsidiary, that is obviously good news for those
who hold debt issued by the bank subsidiary. Their
recovery rates would be much, much larger.
If the $5 billion stays with the holding company, then
senior, unsecured bonds of the holding company may
receive their full principal back and subordinated bonds
may receive 50 cents on the dollar, according to
published reports.
This is a very fluid situation right now, reflecting new
news and the large amount of uncertainty. If you hold
bonds issued by Washington Mutual, what you first need
to do is to understand whether the bonds you owned were
issued by the holding company or the bank. That will go
a long way to determining what money, if any, you
eventually recover.
If we take a step back from the specifics of WaMu,
it’s important to rethink the rest of your fixed
income holdings. If you hold individual bonds in other
firms, we suggest you take the following steps.
- Know what you own. It is vital that you understand
the terms and conditions of your bonds, their credit
rating, and any recent changes in that credit
rating.
- Diversify. Diversification is not just an equity
concept. How many issuers do you have in your
portfolio? Is your financial health overly dependent
on any one of them? Do you have too many issuers
from the same or related industries? If so, they are
more likely to suffer together.
On
money funds:
What is Rule 2a-7?
Money market funds are regulated by the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the
provisions of the 1940 Investment Company Act.
SEC Rule 2a-7 is within the 1940 Investment Company Act.
Its key provisions govern the maturity, quality and
diversification of money market funds. Enhanced cash
funds are not beholden to Rule 2a-7.
With respect to maturity, Rule 2a-7 mandates that money
funds limit their investments to securities with
maturities of 397 days or fewer, and that they maintain
a dollar-weighted portfolio average of 90 days or fewer.
In addition, money funds may only invest in high quality
securities and may invest up to 5% of assets in Tier 2
securities (securities rated F2 by Fitch, Prime-2 or
MIG-2 by Moody’s, or A-2 or SP-2 by S&P).
The funds are also subject to strict diversification
requirements that limit the exposure to any one given
security and limit concentrations within an industry,
etc.
On
AIG:
What to do if I own
common and/or preferred shares of AIG stock?
Schwab Equity Ratings® currently rates the common
shares of American International Group (AIG) NR meaning
"not rated." This is the standard Schwab
Equity Rating for the shares of companies facing
extraordinary circumstances that we consider outside the
boundaries of our normal rating process.
Certainly, AIG deserves such a rating with the September
16 announcement that the federal government has become,
in effect, the controlling shareholder of the firm (with
a 79.9% stake) by providing AIG with a two-year, $85
billion loan with an interest rate of three-month LIBOR
plus 8.5%. As of October 9, AIG had borrowed $70.3
billion from the Fed.
This action takes a Chapter 11 filing off the table, but
for common equity holders the dilution in their stake is
severe. We explicitly call out common shareholders here
because our understanding is that the Fed’s stake will
be in the form of common shares and thus not dilute
preferred holders.
However, preferred holders need to be mindful that the
Fed in its announcement made a point of noting that it
"has the right to veto the payment of dividends to
common and preferred shareholders." Given that the
Fed felt it had no choice but to pursue this
unprecedented action because of the AIG parent
company’s precarious finances, it does not seem likely
to us that any dividend payments will be forthcoming
anytime soon. In fact, the company announced on
September 23 that it was suspending its $0.23-per-share
dividend to common shareholders.
As for the future share price of AIG, that is more
difficult to determine. We believe common shareholders
need to come to grips with the fact that AIG is
controlled by an entity (the Fed) that is not terribly
concerned with the interests of its fellow shareholders.
As the Fed made plain in its announcement, it acted out
of concern for the economy, not company shareholders. In
its statement, the Fed said it believed "that, in
current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could
add to already significant levels of financial market
fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing
costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker
economic performance."
The Fed also wants its money back. Quoting again from
the Fed’s statement: "The purpose of this
liquidity facility is to assist AIG in meeting its
obligations as they come due. This loan will facilitate
a process under which AIG will sell certain of its
businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible
disruption to the overall economy … The loan is
expected to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale of
the firm’s assets."
Some of those assets have already been pledged to the
Treasury. On October 8, the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York reportedly provided AIG with an additional loan for
$37.8 billion in exchange for receiving an equivalent
amount of investment-grade bonds held in AIG’s
investment portfolio. These are the types of assets that
could have been sold to repay the original $85 billion
loan, but now can’t be sold because they’re pledged
against the new loan.
It seems to us there are two key questions for
shareholders. First, what, if anything, will be left
after the assets are sold to pay the loan and satisfy
all the firm's other creditors? We don't know how that
process will play out, but we can say that AIG shares
are a highly, highly speculative investment, and
encourage current shareholders to evaluate their options
with that in mind as they consider how such an
investment fits within their own specific situation.
Second, what will the post-asset sale AIG look like and
is that an attractive firm? One scenario to consider is
that the Fed sells off AIG's most desirable assets,
leaving behind perhaps a viable entity, but not
necessarily an attractive stock to hold.
What's the status of AIG
bonds?
As of September 29, American International Group's
senior unsecured debt is trading at approximately 50
cents on the dollar, given the uncertainty on the
company's ability to navigate its way thorough this
crisis. The Fed agreed to loan AIG as much as $85
billion and wants to receive payment back with interest
within two years. In the event that AIG is unable to pay
back the loan, the government then has claim to the
assets of AIG ahead of any current bondholders. In other
words, the bailout has effectively subordinated existing
debt owners.
There are three key questions for current bondholders.
- How much will AIG actually borrow from the Fed? As
of October 9, it had reportedly borrowed $70.3
billion. We believe the more money AIG borrows from
the Fed, the more difficult it is for current AIG
bondholders to get paid. For example, on October 8,
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided AIG
with an additional loan for $37.8 billion in
exchange for receiving an equivalent amount of
investment-grade bonds held in AIG’s investment
portfolio. These are the types of assets that could
have been sold to repay the original $85 billion
loan, but now can’t be sold because they’re
pledged against the new loan.
- How well will AIG's process of selling off
operating units go? AIG is looking to sell off
assets in order to raise cash to pay back the Fed
loan. The sale of some of its operating units seems
to be the direction they are looking, according to
news reports. The more dollars raised, the better it
will be for bondholders.
- How healthy will the new AIG be? We suspect AIG
will be a substantially different company after
these asset sales take place. Does that new entity
have sufficient cash flow and earning power to
sustain the debt load it's inheriting from the old
AIG? Impossible to say at this point without knowing
more about the company's plans.
On
Lehmen Brothers and Neuberger Berman:
Should I own Lehman
bonds?
Lehman Brothers had about $150 billion in corporate
bonds outstanding, as of May 31. If you hold some of
those bonds, the first thing to do is to understand the
type of bond that you hold. The price at which your bond
will trade, as well as any proceeds you receive
post-bankruptcy will depend on two things: first, the
seniority of the bonds and second, whether your bond is
secured or unsecured.
If a bond is secured, that means it has the highest
claim on certain company assets that back the bond. In a
Chapter 11 filing, bondholders have a claim on those
assets to help pay back the bondholders. If you’re an
individual investor, it is unlikely that you own a
secured bond. Typically, banks that loan to companies
are those who own the secured debt.
The seniority of a bond refers to the pecking order that
determines who gets paid as company assets are unwound.
CreditSights estimated on September 22 that senior,
unsecured debt of Lehman Brothers may receive 45 cents on
the dollar now that the firm has entered Chapter 11
proceedings. Note that this is an estimate of what the
bondholders may eventually receive. The bonds may trade
at substantially different values and, as of September
29, were trading much lower at 14 cents.
Last in line are the holders of subordinated debt.
Once you understand where your bonds reside in the
pecking order, it is time to think through your
situation and the future of Lehman. We now know that
Lehman has filed for Chapter 11 protection. What we'll
probably see is some sort of court-administered
liquidation of Lehman's assets. In fact, this process
has already started. Some of the announcements are as
follows.
- Barclays Bank agreed to purchase various
investment banking assets as well as the Lehman
index business.
- Nomura Holdings announced that it plans to
purchase Lehman's operations in Asia, Europe and the
Middle East.
- Two private equity firms have announced plans to
purchase various divisions within Lehman's asset
management unit including Neuberger Berman.
Banks and secured creditors will come out the best under
this scenario. Those who hold senior, unsecured debt
will fare next best, and those who hold subordinated
debt will probably end up with little.
The silver lining for bondholders is that the healthier
Wall Street firms are considering setting up a special
fund to help finance the orderly liquidation of Lehman's
assets. If this comes to pass, it should help
bondholders by providing a form of price support to
those assets. The more Lehman can get for those assets
as it winds down its operation, the bigger the pie for
creditors to divide up among themselves. The proposal to
establish a $700 billion fund for the U.S. Treasury to
purchase from financial firms various securities may
also help to stabilize the market.
The question facing bondholders is whether to sell now
or simply hold on and see how the situation unfolds. We
believe selling right now is a difficult proposition as
the market is thin and thus subject to an exceptionally
wide bid-offer spread.
If you believe you need the money immediately, then
selling now may be a reasonable course of action. If
that is not your situation, then consider waiting to let
events calm a bit in order to plan your next move.
Thinking about waiting to let it all wash out in
bankruptcy court? Keep in mind that bankruptcy courts
can move slowly. If you choose this path, be prepared to
wait perhaps 18 months to see any principle returned to
bondholders.
What should I do if I own
Lehman preferred stock?
When a company files for bankruptcy protection, it is
important for holders of securities issued by that
company to understand where their securities lie in the
pecking order of stakeholders. Preferred stockholders
are after bondholders in the queue, but before common
stockholders.
One way of gauging the outlook for Lehman preferred
shares is to consider where securities are trading that
are higher in the pecking order.
Prices for Lehman bonds are volatile and subject to wide
bid-offer spreads, so please don't consider these to be
quotes. However, Lehman senior unsecured bonds were
trading at 14 cents on September 29. Some firms have
marked their Lehman debt down to zero.
Given these prices, it isn't surprising that Lehman
Brothers preferred stocks are trading at levels which
are indicative of market perceptions that the securities
are worthless. It is important to check the trading
level of each particular issue, but given that preferred
stocks are behind all debt in the capital structure, it
is the market's perception that there is little chance
of any residual value in Lehman preferred shares.
What will happen to
Lehman exchange-traded funds (ETFs)?
This is an interesting question in that it illustrates
some confusion about ETFs. As far as we know, Lehman
does not manage any ETFs. However, there are ETFs which
track various Lehman indexes. What this means is that some
other firms (other than Lehman) have created ETFs
that track some of Lehman indexes.
Barclays Capital has announced that they have purchased
Lehman's indexes and will continue to publish them.
What will happen to
Lehman indexes?
Barclays announced that they had completed their
acquisition “of Lehman Brothers' North American
Investment Banking and Capital Markets businesses. As
part of the transaction, Lehman Brothers' indexes have
become part of Barclays Capital. Recognizing the
industry significance of these indexes, Barclays has
announced its commitment to maintaining the family of
Lehman Brothers indexes and the associated index
calculation, publication and analytical infrastructure
and tools …”
What is happening with
Neuberger Berman?
Private equity firms Bain Capital Partners, LLC and
Hellman & Friedman, LCC announced that they
intend to acquire Neuberger Berman from its parent
company, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. (LEH). According
to this announcement, Neuberger Berman, Lehman Brothers
fixed income, and some of the private equity asset
management businesses from LEH's Investment Management
Division (IMD) will form a new company named Neuberger
Investment Management (NIM).
Joe Amato, head of Neuberger Berman, said that NIM
ownership will be split such that Bain and Hellman each
own 40%. The portfolio managers and other employees of
the acquired groups will own 20%. The employee stake
will vest over a number of years and can increase in the
future, as well. The employee stake is linked to
noncompete agreements. This ownership structure is meant
to assist in the retention of portfolio managers and
other investment professionals, according to Amato.
Amato also said that he expects the transaction to be
complete in early 2009. The transaction is subject to
the processes of client consent, mutual fund board
approval, and LEH's bankruptcy court approval, Amato
explained.
On
investing in stocks now:
Why should I have any
money in the U.S. stock market?
In a general communication like this we can't make
specific recommendations because each person's situation
is different. What we can do is offer some things to
think about in the hopes that by considering these
items, you can come to your own conclusion.
On the question of the stock market, the angst behind
the question is understandable and genuine. Each morning
we're faced with headlines about one company or another
being in trouble. Particularly when these are big-name
firms and the news is mostly negative it is
understandable to question, "Why be in the stock
market at all?"
There are many reasons we think exposure to the stock
market makes sense for the right type of person, but for
those who are considering a dramatic reduction in their
stock market exposure, we believe three issues seem
particularly appropriate at the moment.
- Cash doesn't cut it long term. A money
market fund might yield 2% right now. If you hold
that money market fund in a taxable account and
you're in the 25% marginal bracket, you'll get to
keep 1.5% as an after-tax yield. The CPI is
currently running at about 4.5%. This means your
real, after-tax yield on a money market fund could
be as low as –3%. This low of a return on cash is
something of an anomaly owing to high inflation that
we expect to subside and the fact that the Fed has
been keeping interest rates low as an economic
stimulus measure. Nevertheless, history has shown
that cash simply doesn't do very well in comparison
to other asset classes.
- Markets are tough to call. We've said it
many times and in many ways so forgive us if we
sound repetitive. With the benefit of hindsight, all
market moves are obvious. If we could magically
switch the perfect hindsight into perfect foresight,
that would be a wonderful technique for trading
strategy. But we can't and what's more, we're not
aware of anyone else who can.
- Whatever news is out there tends to be priced
in. In the face of weak economic reports, shaky
economic statistics and the rest, the immediate
reaction many of us have is to immediately want to
sell. Bad news means get out of town. In the real
world, things aren't so simple. Keep in mind that at
any given time most, if not all of the news that is
out there is embedded in the prices of stocks. In
other words, the bad news is already reflected
to a large extent in stock prices. The question is
whether you think the news that affects stocks will
be better or worse in the future than what is
already anticipated by the market. Our reading of
history suggests that one of the primary reasons why
many investors underperform market averages over the
long-term is that they sell after prices have
declined due to a string of bad news, and they buy
after a rise in prices caused by a string of
positive news. Rather than thinking forward they
look backward, and while it’s a cliché, we
believe that investing while looking through a
rearview mirror has little chance of success.
What should I be doing
with my stock portfolio right now?
The stock market is a turbulent place right now, but
just because there's a lot of turbulence doesn't mean
you approach the process of analyzing your portfolio any
differently. Consider the following approach as a way of
analyzing your portfolio from the standpoint of
discipline and not emotion.
The first thing is to understand your holdings. One
place to start is by considering how your equity
portfolio stacks up from the standpoint of individual
sectors. The present crisis has had a disproportionate
impact on certain sectors of the economy like
financials. What is your exposure to that area? If it is
higher than 15%, we consider that an outsized position
and we suggest bringing it in line with market weights.
As for your other sector holdings, please consult Schwab
Sector Views on Schwab.com for our latest thinking on
the other sectors in the economy and their outlook
during the next few months.
It's also a good idea to understand your portfolio from
the standpoint of its individual holdings. What are the
current Schwab Equity Ratings on your individual
positions? As a general rule, we don't believe there's
ever a good reason to hold on to D- and F-rated stocks.
If you are currently holding them, we suggest you
revisit your original rationale for holding them and
consider selling.
If you have stocks rated NR, that means something
extraordinary has happened with that company—an event
that renders the Schwab Equity Rating not meaningful and
so we decline to rate it. If you hold NR stocks, then it
is a good idea to review the current news on that
company and ask yourself whether those shares still fit
within your investing plan.
This is also a good time to consider your overall
exposure to stocks. Reacquaint yourself with the target
asset allocation for your portfolio. The target asset
allocation is intended to match up with your long-term
needs, circumstances and risk tolerance. If those
circumstances have not changed and your portfolio has
roughly the same percentage in stocks as indicated by
your asset allocation, then you're probably in good
shape. Be sure, however, to assess whether your stock
holdings are well-diversified and of high quality.
On
dividend investing:
Are the typically high
dividends of financial stocks safe?
Many firms in the financial services industry have cut
or eliminated dividends during the past year. AIG, Bank
of America, Lehman, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Washington
Mutual, Wachovia and Citigroup are just some examples of
firms eliminating or reducing their dividends. This
points to the difficult environment in which many of
these firms are operating.
Capital is vital to the health of these firms. It
supports lending to others, provides a cushion against
loan defaults and is closely watched by regulators to
assess a firm’s financial strength. Cutting dividends
to common shareholders is one of the better ways to
preserve capital when times are tough.
How about nonfinancial
stocks?
According to Standard and Poor's, 138 companies
decreased their dividends in the third quarter of 2008. Financial
stocks, though, accounted for two-thirds of the cuts,
indicating to us that nonfinancials are in better shape.
Is this sustainable? We believe it all depends on how
corporate earnings hold up in the wake of a slowing
economy. Firms loathe to cut dividends, but if earnings
suffer too much, then management may not have any
choice.
How can I be a smarter
dividend investor?
If you rely on common dividends to generate income, we
suggest you review each of your holdings and ask,
"How stable is that dividend?" and, "Is
the company going to be able to pay that dividend going
forward?"
Even if the answers to those questions are yes, it
behooves you to not be too reliant for portfolio income
on any single stock. Don’t make the mistake of
thinking you’re adequately diversified just because
your dividend income comes from several stocks. If the
stocks are all in the same sector, then you may not be
as diversified as you think.
A few years ago, auto stocks were an example of an
industry whose companies tended to pay high dividends.
They all were subject to the same economic forces,
however, and many have cut their dividends as a result.
Financials are, of course, a more recent example of the
same phenomenon.
On
the banking system and CD investing:
What’s a good way to
invest in CDs?
There are lots of advantages to certificates of
deposit (CDs). There is a lot of flexibility on the
maturities that you can choose from, and, as long as
you’re within FDIC limits, your investment is insured.
One caution is to watch out for banks paying
above-market rates on CDs. Banks issue CDs because they
need to attract deposits. They then take those deposits
and reinvest the money. Sometimes that investment takes
the form of loans and other times they invest in
higher-yielding securities.
If a bank is offering well-above market rates, this
could mean any of three things.
- The bank is in good shape and is simply trying to
attract business.
- The bank has lower operating costs, which allows
it to pass some of its efficiencies on to depositors
in the form of better rates.
- It could be a sign of desperation (i.e., the bank
needs new depositors to provide cash flow to the
bank).
Our advice is that the higher the rate of the CD
relative to those offered by other banks, the more you
need to pay attention to the rules around FDIC insurance
and structure your accounts in a manner that allows you
to maximize your insurance protection.
How is the banking system
holding up?
Banks are the financial equivalent of canaries in the
coal mine, and failing banks indicate an underlying
weakness in the economy. Investors need to realize that
we are in a situation where we have substantial
financial turmoil and much of the policy actions are
motivated by a desire to prevent financial turmoil from
infecting the underlying economy. Bank failures indicate
that policymakers are not being 100% successful in that
regard.
Steering depositors away from panic and instilling
public confidence in the banking system were reasons why
Congress created the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation (FDIC) in 1933 as an independent agency of
the United States government. The FDIC insures deposits
at 8,451 banks and savings associations and is backed by
the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. When a
bank fails, depositors can take some comfort in knowing
federal law requires the FDIC to make payments as soon
as possible.
Bank failures this year have placed pressure on FDIC
reserves. The FDIC reserve fund totaled $45.2 billion at
the end of June 2008 and its "reserve ratio"
was 1.01%. Both the reserve ratio and the dollars in the
reserve fund need shoring up. The FDIC plans to fix both
problems by roughly doubling the insurance premiums it
charges the banks that fund the system. The increases
would be phased in starting in the first quarter of
2009. It is also planning to alter its premium
assessment to charge higher premiums to banks deemed
riskier. It already does this, but the proposal would
increase the differential premium charged.
In the event that the premium income doesn't roll in
fast enough, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of
2008 temporarily granted the FDIC an unlimited line of
credit at the U.S. Treasury. Considering the importance
that policymakers place on having a stable and secure
banking system, we expect that the Treasury will be
forthcoming with the funds necessary should the FDIC
request assistance.
To date, the system seems to be working well. Fifteen
banks and savings & loans have failed this year,
including the largest ever (Washington Mutual). When
these banks failed, depositors were protected and
shareholders weren't. That's how the system is designed
and we believe the system remains effective. The FDIC
has been proactive at getting to troubled banks before
they become insolvent and finding buyers for them. Wells
Fargo's purchase of Wachovia is the prime example of
that.
The situation would be far more worrisome if regulators
had been forced to close WaMu and Wachovia without
lining up a buyer. They didn't have to, and that means
it's good news. We see the willingness of JPMorgan Chase
and Wells Fargo to step in means there’s ample capital
in the system to accommodate quality assets that come up
for sale.
Is the FDIC fund large
enough to absorb more bank failures?
We believe so. According to reports, the most recent
estimate (June 2008) of the insurance fund's size is $45
billion. If additional banks fail and the FDIC is not
able to orchestrate the complete sale of assets to
another institution, it must draw upon assets in the
fund in order to make insured depositors whole (at least
up to the level of insurance). Keep in mind, however,
that the insurance fund gets replenished as it collects
fees from other banks.
In the event that the fees are not able to keep pace
with draw downs against the fund, the FDIC can tap a
credit line it has from the U.S. Treasury. Only once
since the fund was formed in 1933 has the fund required
federal assistance (in the early 1990s). The FDIC
borrowed money from the Treasury and repaid that money,
with interest, within two years.
Are my assets safe at a
traditional bank?
Although bank failures are relatively rare events, it's
prudent to evaluate the steps you can take in order to
protect the assets you have in the banking system. Here
are a few things to keep in mind.
First, when a bank fails (which has happened 15
times this year), depositors can take some
comfort in knowing federal law requires the FDIC to make
payments as soon as possible. Based on its previous
track record, the FDIC has generallymade insured
deposits available within a few days after a bank
closing.
Second, some important advice for bank depositors is to
maximize the amount of their balances that fall under
the FDIC insurance safety blanket. With a little bit of
planning beforehand, depositors can greatly increase
their insured amounts and significantly reduce their
exposure to loss should their banks fail. Consider the
following:
- Make deposits at FDIC-insured banks. The FDIC logo
should be plainly displayed on their Web sites and
in their branches.
- Make sure you understand the rules of insurance
coverage. The FDIC aggregates each customer's
deposits, such as checking accounts, savings
accounts and CDs, into several "ownership
categories" that receive separate FDIC
insurance coverage. Understanding and taking
advantage of these ownership categories is the
primary way for depositors to maximize their
FDIC-insured balances. To learn more about the
ownership categories, read Protecting
Your Cash Assets.
The simplest way to make sure you're covered is to keep
no more than $250,000 at any single FDIC insured
institution.
Important Disclosures
Investors should carefully consider information
contained in the prospectus, including investment
objectives, risks, charges and expenses. You can request
a prospectus by calling Schwab at 800-435-4000. Please
read the prospectus carefully before investing. The
current and future portfolio holdings contained in a
mutual fund is subject to risk you should be aware of
prior to making an investment decision. An
investment in a money market fund is not insured or
guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
or any other government agency. Although money market
funds seek to preserve the value of your investment at
$1 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing
in this type of fund. Exchange-traded funds are
subject to risks similar to those of stocks. Investment
returns will fluctuate and are subject to market
volatility, so that an investor's shares, when redeemed
or sold, may be worth more or less than their original
cost. Investments in foreign investments may incur
greater risks than domestic investments. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results.
On October 3, 2008, FDIC
deposit insurance temporarily increased from $100,000 to
$250,000 per depositor through December 31, 2009. IRAs
and certain other retirement accounts for which the
deposit insurance limit already was $250,000 prior to
October 3, 2008 will continue to be insured up to
$250,000. Certificates of deposit offer a fixed rate of
return and are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per person
per institution through December 31, 2009 ($250,000 for
certain retirement accounts too). There may be costs
associated with early redemption and possible market
value adjustment. A CD with a maturity date after
December 31, 2009 is scheduled to revert back to
$100,000 for non-retirement accounts and remain $250,000
for retirement accounts.The U.S. Treasury Temporary
Guarantee Program provides a guarantee to participating
money market mutual fund shareholders based on the
number of shares invested in the fund at the close of
business on September 19, 2008. Any increase in shares
in the account after the close of business on September
19, 2008, will not be guaranteed. If the value of these
shares fluctuate over the period, investors will be
covered for either the number of shares held as of the
close of business on September 19, 2008, or the current
amount, whichever is less. The Program expires on
December 18, 2008, unless extended by the U.S. Treasury.
Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
receives remuneration from fund companies in the Mutual
Fund OneSource® program for recordkeeping and
shareholder services, and other administrative services.
Schwab also may receive remuneration from transaction
fee fund companies for certain administrative
services.Fixed-income investments are subject to various
risks, including changes in interest rates, credit
quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments,
corporate events, tax ramifications, and other
factors.Schwab Equity Ratings® are assigned to
approximately 3,000 of the largest (by market
capitalization) U.S.-headquartered stocks using a scale
of A, B, C, D and F. Schwab's outlook is that A-rated
stocks, on average, will strongly outperform and F-rated
stocks, on average, will strongly underperform the
equities market over the next 12 months. Schwab Equity
Ratings are not personal recommendations for any
particular investor. Before buying, investors should
consider whether the investment is suitable for
themselves and their portfolio.This report is for
informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or
a recommendation that any particular investor should
purchase or sell any particular security, or follow any
particular investment strategy. The types of securities
and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable
for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security
transaction for his or her own particular situation and
determine how volatile fluctuating market
conditions may affect those investment decisions.
All views on prevailing market analysis and expressions
of opinions are subject to change without notice in
response to changing market conditions. Certain
information regarding market conditions contained herein
is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but
its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed.
The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division
of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.